How to use this page: the six tabs above divide the brief into parts, and this first tab is the summary. "The Club" tab is written for the Club's leadership. "Take the one-minute tour" at the top walks through the story, one chart at a time. Words with a dotted underline and a small ? can be clicked for a plain-English explanation. Each chart has an "In plain terms" note under it. The "Larger" button at the top makes all the type bigger.
The problem is not the dollar amount. Residents who voted supported an increase at 48%, far short of the the require, and the give members no practical way to . Deadlock is the designed outcome of those two rules together.
Four moves, in this order. Each is within existing authority or has a precedent in the Association's own record. The full version, the deferral design, and the six alternatives with their thresholds are on the Paths tab.
Voting packets 2002–2026 and Annual Reports (assessment rate notes). 1998–2002 rates are not in the public library and are shown as a gap. Growth rate is the author's calculation from the endpoints. In consumer-price terms (CPI) the 2026 dues are about 6% above 2018 and 65% above 1997; the shortfall is against what the money buys, shown below.
| Vote | For | First-year ask | Turnout | Yes | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2002 | 2003–05 | $920 (+12%) | — | — | Passed |
| Oct 2005 | 2006–08 | $1,225 (+28%) | — | — | Passed |
| Oct 2008 | 2009–11 | $1,400 (+8%) | — | — | Passed |
| Oct 2011 | 2012–14 | $1,600 (+5%, incl. $125 marketing) | ~70% | 64% | Failed |
| Spring 2012 | 2013–15 | $1,550 (+2%) | — | — | Passed |
| Nov 2015 | 2016–18 | $1,730 (+4%) | 68% | 74% | Passed |
| Dec 2016 | Special, $400 | one-time | 71% | 87% | Passed |
| Oct 2018 | 2019–21 | $1,910 (+3%) | lower | ≈66% | Failed |
| Sep 2020 | 2021–23 | $2,070 (+12%) | — | — | Passed |
| Apr 2023 | 2024–26 | $2,445 (+7.7%) | — | — | Passed |
| May 2026 | 2027–29 | $3,390 (+31%) | 72% | 48% | Failed |
| Sep 2026 | 2027–29 | $2,850 (+10%) | 73% | 62% | Failed |
Turnout and yes shares as published in Annual Reports, Annual Meeting presentations and 2026 updates; dashes where the Association did not publish a figure. 2011 turnout is inferred from the 2013 packet ("in the last four community-wide elections, about 30% of property owners didn't vote").
| Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road-building cost index (FHWA, 2003 = 1.00) | 1.79 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 2.06 | 2.60 | 3.01 | 3.24 | 3.23 | 3.14 |
| Dues needed to keep pace | $1,850 | $1,994 | $1,990 | $2,133 | $2,694 | $3,122 | $3,353 | $3,341 | $3,247 |
| Dues as billed | $1,850 | $1,850 | $1,850 | $2,070 | $2,170 | $2,270 | $2,445 | $2,518 | $2,594 |
| Shortfall per lot | — | $144 | $140 | $63 | $524 | $852 | $908 | $823 | $653 |
FHWA National Highway Construction Cost Index (2003 Q1 = 1.000), annual averages of the quarterly unadjusted index from the FHWA dataset on data.transportation.gov; 2026 is the first quarter only. The index is built from prices in actual state highway contracts: asphalt, concrete, grading, drainage pipe and inlets, among others. Two honest caveats. First, 2018 is a defensible base (the last year set by a vote before the first freeze, and the level the 2020 reserve study judged only 30% funded), but a 2021 base gives a smaller gap: $558 a lot, $2.5 million a year, $14.6 million cumulative. Second, only the reserve share of the dues buys construction; the Board has protected that share by shifting dollars out of operations (reserves took 16% of each dollar in 2018 and take 38% in 2026), which is why services were cut after 2018 rather than roads. The independent reserve study measures what remains: $1,354 a lot needed against $984 paid, $370 a lot and $1.6 million a year. The shortfall is therefore between $1.6 million and $2.9 million a year depending on how it is counted; it is not zero on any count. Against ordinary consumer prices the dues have roughly kept pace (about 6% above 2018 in real terms).
The strongest case for an increase is not the Board's and not the peer set's. It is the analyst's, commissioned by the Association and dated before either vote.
Sources: 2019–21, 2021–23, 2024–26 and 2027–29 voting packets; 2026 Budget Book p.49. Dues were frozen at $1,850 for 2018–2020 after the 2018 vote failed.
Source: Community Advisors Reserve Study, Oct 17 2025, pp.1-2 and 1-4. Fully funded balance ≈ $38.1M; 2026 opening balance $11.05M. Under the current plan the balance turns negative in 2035.
The study's required plan holds reserves "above a 30% fully funded level at the request of the Association." TLA's own 2023 packet called 30% "the absolute minimum for what is considered adequate by industry standards." The common rule of thumb among reserve professionals treats under 30% funded as weak, 30–70% as fair and over 70% as strong. TLA has been managing to the bottom of "fair" for years; the frozen cap takes it to the single digits.
| Required vs funded, per lot | Per lot | Total / yr |
|---|---|---|
| Reserve study required contribution (2026) | $1,354 | $5,983,247 |
| Reserve allocation, 2026 budget | $984 | $4,349,280 |
| Reserve allocation, 2030 plan (frozen cap) | $614 | $2,713,880 |
| Vote 2 proposed capital allocation 2027 / 2028 / 2029 | $1,200 / $1,385 / $1,575 | — |
| Roads + storm drains + paths, 2026–2030 , annualized | $953 | $4,212,634 |
| Year-end | Reserve balance | Percent funded | Assets it must cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $6.4M | — | — |
| 2019 | $7.3M | 30% | $47.9M |
| 2022 | $9.6M | 32% | $60.4M |
| 2023 | $10.2M | 33% | $62.6M |
| 2024 | $11.5M | 33% | $59.9M |
| 2025 | $11.1M | 34% | $66.5M |
| 2026 (projected) | $10.2M | 27% | $66.5M |
Sources: Reserve Study p.1-1 and notes; Budget Book pp.5, 48–49, 52; Vote 2 packet p.4; 2024–26 packet FAQ; balances and percent funded as reported at the 2019–2026 Annual Meetings; 2019 from the first full reserve study (Jan 2020 budget workshop, slides 47–49); 2025–26 from the Budget Box of Dec 17 2025 and the Oct 2025 study. Board policy sets a 30% threshold; the 2026 budget drops below it "as a result of Board approval." The 2026–2030 capital plan was revised upward after the study: roads $7.8M → $12.7M, storm drains $4.7M → $6.6M, paths $1.4M → $1.8M; the 2026 budget already draws $0.9M from reserves. Vote 2's capital line was, in effect, the reserve study's number; it still failed.
At 3% inflation, $2,594 buys 8.5% less by 2029 and 13.7% less by 2031. The LRFP balances operations by cutting the reserve allocation per lot from $984 (2026) to $614 (2030); projected reserve balances fall from $11.2M to $2.8M by 2031 while the capital program grows. Deferred road and drain work does not get cheaper: the 2026 roads budget alone is $2.26M for five roads, and corrugated-metal outfalls installed 50+ years ago are already failing (May 2025 President's Update; Sept 2026 packet).
Budget Book pp.48–52; Reserve Study p.1-4.
Non-assessment revenue is $6.24M of the $13.36M operating budget. The Board may raise fees without a vote (Covenants 8.8(a)(iv)) and borrow for maintenance, repair and restoration without member approval (Bylaws 3.17; the two-thirds member trigger applies only to discretionary capital debt above ~10% of budgeted expenses). It is already happening: 2026 vehicle-registration revenue is up 14% on a fee increase; marina storage rates rose 12%; the LRFP's largest projected revenue gains for 2026–2030 are fee lines (boat rack rental +$1.9M, vehicle registration +$1.0M). A "no" vote does not stop the money; it reroutes it through less transparent, less evenly borne charges, and through deferred maintenance.
Oct 27 2026 Board packet (9-month P&L); Budget Book p.47.
2019–2020, after the 2018 vote failed. The 2020 operating budget was cut 4% below 2018 with "no new or additional services": center-island refurbishment cut from $150,000 to $100,000; mailbox and sign repainting cut from a third of the community a year to a sixth; the recycling center closed; seasonal cookouts, the off-duty police patrol ($60,000) and strategic-plan spending ($95,000) eliminated; Security and Marinas budgeted at 90% and 80% of full staffing. At the same time the reserve share of each $1,850 was pushed from $305 (2018 budget) to $684 (2019 actual) by squeezing operations, and the operating fund ran a $1.7M deficit in 2019. Capital projects were deferred: dry-stack refurbishment, playground, athletic-field lighting, sign lighting, perimeter security, flood mitigation.
2027, after the 2026 votes failed. The President's September 28 update: the 2027 budget is being reduced by $1,100,000, "consistent with our responsibility to maintain our infrastructure and basic services"; which lines are cut will be explained once the budget is approved in December.
Budget Workshops, Nov 2019 ("Changes to Budget since 2018"), slides 5–12, 21, 27; 2019 and 2020 Annual Meeting presentations; President's Update, Sept 28 2026.
Per lot, TLA is mid-pack among structurally similar communities. Per mile of road it must maintain, it is near the bottom. Both readings are needed; the per-lot one will be used against any proposal.
Association documents, or guides citing the association (lighter bars). Peers: private, staffed gates, association-owned roads and drainage, club separate. Median $2,424; TLA at the 55th percentile. Full method and 37-community dataset in the benchmark workbook.
| Measure | TLA | Peer median |
|---|---|---|
| Lots per mile of association road | 49 | 71 |
| Assessment revenue per road mile | $126K | $172K |
| Assessment that would match the peer median per road mile | $3,547 | — |
| Published capital spend per lot (TLA 2026 plan; Sea Pines 2025; Kiawah 2024) | $1,263 | $1,109–$1,324 |
| Non-assessment share of operating revenue | 47% | Sea Pines ≈40% |
TLA: 91 miles of roads, 89 miles of storm drains, 151 lagoons, 30 miles of paths, 7 gates (Budget Book p.18). Peers with road miles: Sea Pines, Hilton Head Plantation, Palmetto Dunes, Indigo Run, Kiawah, Seabrook, Ford's Colony, Kingsmill.
Reading: TLA's price is ordinary; its road and drainage burden per lot is not. The peer evidence supports an assessment in the $3,100–$3,550 range as normal for this structure. The reserve study, not the peers, says what is required.
Every threshold below is a count of lots out of 4,420. The Board's thresholds are counted among nine directors; the members' are counted among all owners.
Sources: Covenants 8.4, 8.5, 11.1B; Bylaws 2.2, 2.5, 3.3, 3.17. "Block the dues" assumes exactly a 60% quorum (2,652 ballots). The Board amends the Bylaws with six of nine votes and no member notice (Bylaws 7.9).
| Vote | What it changed | Window | Turnout | Yes votes (of 4,422 needed 2,948) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep–Oct 2007 | Removed the once-a-decade limit on amendments; added 11.1B (amendment by vote, written consent or both) | 6 weeks; every approval had to be notarized and witnessed; notaries at the office, LandingsFest, town halls and through block captains | — | — | Passed |
| Feb–Jun 2013 | Adopted the Georgia Property Owners' Association Act | 5 months; paper and online | ≈75% | 2,462 by Feb 27 with 486 to go; adopted April 2013 | Passed |
| May–Dec 2014 | Five modernization items: developer language removed, POAA provisions, wells, emergency entry, home businesses | 8 months; survey of 1,600+ owners first | — | — | Passed |
| Feb–May 2015 | Maintenance standards, fines, appeals (11.3) | 4 months | 78% | 2,995 yes, 445 no: 47 votes to spare | Passed |
Covenants Voting Packets 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015; 2013 Annual Meeting presentation; 2015 Annual Report; 2016 Annual Meeting presentation. The 2014 and 2015 language appears in the current compiled Covenants (4.7, 4.12, 6.6, 8.8, 11.3). Turnout for 2013 is the 2014 packet's "25% of property owners didn't vote."
The maximum assessment is set by member vote for three-year periods (8.3.1). Any change needs at a meeting with a 60% (8.4, 8.5); if quorum fails, a second meeting within 60 days needs 30%, halving thereafter. A ballot in lieu of a meeting must clear the same quorum in ballots returned (Bylaws 2.8). There is no CPI and no : a failed vote leaves the prior maximum in place with no expiry. The Board may set the actual assessment below the maximum (8.3.2) but never above it. for capital face the identical bar (8.2.2). Changing any of this means a : 66⅔% of the total eligible vote (11.1B).
Removal requires a majority of all members (3.3), a bar the Bylaws raised above Georgia's default (O.C.G.A. § 14-3-808, which applies "unless the articles or bylaws provide otherwise"). Candidates reach the ballot only through a Board-appointed (3.7; Charter Apr 28 2026) that selects "at least two" per seat; the only alternative is a without the published bio. Officers are chosen by the outgoing Board in executive session (4.2). The Board can remove one of its own by simple majority for a "knowing violation of Board policy" and fill the seat itself (3.3, 3.4). Bylaw amendments take two-thirds of the Board, no member vote (7.9). Member levers: a 25% petition forces a special meeting within 60 days (2.2), the President sets its date and agenda; member-initiated ballots do not exist (2.8 is Board discretion).
In practice: every election packet from 2019 to 2026 offers exactly six Committee-chosen candidates for three seats, the Bylaws minimum. Board-election turnout runs 41–50%, against about 70% for dues votes. The Committee's own June 2026 article acknowledges the perception that its slates show "little differentiation."
| Rule | Where it lives | Who can change it | What it takes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% quorum and two-thirds of votes cast for a dues increase | Covenants 8.4, 8.5 | Owners only | Declaration amendment: 66⅔% of the total eligible vote (≈ 2,947 lots), by vote, written consent, or any combination (11.1B); the Board proposes, certifies and records but cannot enact. The Georgia POA Act independently requires two-thirds of all votes to amend the recorded instrument. |
| Three-year cycle; no escalator; frozen maximum on failure | Covenants 8.3.1 | Owners only | Same |
| Director removal (majority of all members), Nominating Committee gate, no member-initiated ballots, 25% petition, 10% ordinary-meeting quorum, director terms, Bylaw amendment rule itself | Bylaws 3.3, 3.7, 2.8, 2.2, 2.5, 3.2, 7.9 | Board alone | Six of nine votes at one meeting; no member notice or vote (7.9). A Bylaw may not contravene the Declaration. |
| How the covenant vote is run: meeting or ballot, timing, how many options on one ballot, whether to call a second meeting within 60 days under 8.5 | Board discretion within 8.4–8.5 and Bylaws 2.8 | Board | Resolution. The 8.5 step-down relaxes turnout only (60% → 30% → 15%); the two-thirds never moves. |
| Fees and charges; borrowing for maintenance, repair and restoration; the actual assessment at any level up to the frozen maximum | Covenants 8.8(a)(iv), 8.3.2; Bylaws 3.17 | Board | Majority of the Board; member approval only for discretionary capital debt above ~10% of budgeted expenses. |
Covenants 8.3–8.5, 8.8, 11.1B; Bylaws 2.2, 2.5, 2.8, 3.2, 3.3, 3.7, 3.17, 7.9; O.C.G.A. § 44-3-226. Minutes of open Board sessions are public: each monthly agenda packet carries the previous meeting's minutes and committee minutes. Executive sessions (personnel, litigation, confidential matters) are not minuted in the packet. Members may already address the Board for five minutes at each meeting.
| Community | Board may raise without a vote | Member vote | If the vote fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Landings (TLA) | No | Every 3 years; 2/3 of votes cast, 60% quorum | Maximum frozen indefinitely |
| Kiawah Island (KICA) | Up to greater of 5% or CPI each year | Only to exceed the cap; 2/3, 60% quorum (25% at 2nd meeting) | Escalator continues |
| Sea Pines (CSA) | Up to trailing CPI | Only above CPI; 75% of ballots returned | CPI increase still available |
| Tellico Village | Up to greater of 5% or CPI | Only above the cap; majority of members voting | Cap still applies |
| Seabrook Island (SIPOA) | No | Whole budget every year; majority of votes cast, 35% quorum | Board resubmits within 30 days; prior-year rate meanwhile |
| Ford's Colony (VA) | Yes; budget stands unless disapproved | Only to disapprove: majority of all members within 30 days | Prior-year assessment continues |
| Dataw Island (DIOA) | Yes; budget stands unless disapproved | Only to disapprove at annual meeting, 50% quorum | Budget stands |
| Bella Vista (AR) | No | 51% of votes cast, 50% quorum, 3-year freeze after approval | Frozen; votes pass or fail by 1–3 points |
Governing documents as located in the benchmark workbook (TLA_Dues_Benchmark_2026.xlsx, Governance sheet). The two recurring design features are an automatic escalator and a fallback that keeps the association funded when a vote fails. TLA has neither.
The companion report Landings Demographic Trends profiles the 4,138 homes inside the gates from the county's parcel digests (1999–2025), three Censuses, the American Community Survey and IRS returns. Four of its findings bear directly on the dues vote: the owner base is older than any ballot design assumes; a no-voting bloc of that size makes two-thirds unreachable; the older households are income-constrained but equity-rich; and a second community of recent, higher-earning buyers now sits beside them.
Decennial Census 2000, 2010, 2020, owner-occupied housing units by age of householder, Skidaway Island CDP (which is the island inside the gates plus a small number of homes outside). The report does not count 80+ householders separately. The "one in five" estimate takes half of the 75–84 band (26.2%) plus all of the 85+ band (6.9%), which gives 20%; the true figure in 2026 is probably a little higher after six years of aging in place. Treat it as 18–23%.
| If a bloc of this share of ballots votes no as a unit… | One in five (20%) | One in four (25%) | One in three (33%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes needed from everyone else to reach two-thirds | 83% | 89% | ≈100% |
| What Vote 1's 48% overall implies everyone else voted | 60% | 64% | 72% |
| If the bloc abstains instead, everyone else needs | 66.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Lots in the bloc, of 4,420 | 884 | 1,105 | 1,459 |
Arithmetic: required yes among the rest = 66.7% ÷ (1 − bloc share); implied yes among the rest = 48% ÷ (1 − bloc share). Vote 2 figures from the GM Update of Oct 2026 (62% / 38%, 73% of lots) and the President's Update of Sept 28 (45% yes, 27% no, 27% not voting, of all lots); counts are derived from those percentages and rounded. Two cautions. The bloc shares are shares of households, not of ballots; older owners usually vote at higher rates, so the bloc's share of ballots cast may be larger than its share of homes. And no one has shown that the 75+ group voted no as a unit: the by-neighborhood results the Association holds are the test (see the table below).
| Vote 2 as counted (73% of 4,420 lots voting; 62% yes, 38% no) | |
|---|---|
| Ballots cast | ≈3,230 |
| Yes / no | ≈2,000 / ≈1,230 |
| Yes needed for two-thirds | ≈2,150 |
| Hard no at a 10% ask, as a share of all lots | 27% (≈1,190 lots) |
| To pass: no voters who switch to yes | ≈150 |
| or: no voters who stay home instead | ≈230 |
| or: non-voters (27% of lots) who turn out and vote yes | ≈450 |
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Median income, households headed by someone 65+ | $114,495 | ACS 2020–24 (the finest age cut the Census publishes for the island) |
| Estimated median income, households headed by someone 75+ | ≈$97,000 | Author's estimate: the island's 65+ median split using the national ratio of 65–74 to 75+ incomes (CPS 2023: $61,830 vs $45,440) and the island's own 65–74 / 75+ mix. For 80+, not published anywhere; likely $85–90K |
| Households with income under $50,000 | 13.5% | ACS 2020–24; was 23% in 2012–16 |
| One-person households aged 65+ | 736 | 2020 Census; 300 in 2000 |
| Owner households headed by someone 65+ | 63% | 2020 Census; 51% in 2000 |
| Owners who have owned more than 20 years | 978 (24%) | County digests, 2025 |
| Share of home value shielded from property tax by the freeze | ~25% | Assessor digest, 2025 |
| Median 2024 sale price | $835,000 | Recorded sales; $425,000 in 2019 |
Landings Demographic Trends, sections 4–5. Income figures are survey estimates for the Census-designated place and tax-return aggregates for ZIP 31411; they describe the community, not any household.
Since 2015 a younger, higher-earning wave has arrived: 1,486 of today's owners (36%) bought in 2020 or later; residents under 45 nearly doubled between 2000 and 2020; the share of households earning $200,000 or more rose from one in five to one in three; and 39% of tax returns filed from ZIP 31411 now report $200,000 or more, up from 27% in 2015. These owners paid the most for their homes, carry the largest mortgages, and have the longest horizon over which roads and drains affect their property value. They are the natural yes bloc, and the ballot has given them nothing to organize around.
| Length of ownership | Owners | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years or less | 1,171 | 28% |
| 6 to 10 years | 1,094 | 26% |
| 11 to 20 years | 895 | 22% |
| More than 20 years | 978 | 24% |
Turnover of about 290 homes a year (derived: 7% of 4,138) means roughly 850 homes, one in five, will have a new owner by the next scheduled cycle in 2029–30. The 2026 electorate is not the 2030 electorate.
Two maps of the same island. The left one is the county assessor's neighborhoods, shaded by the share of homes headed by someone 75 or older (darker is older), from the companion report. The right one is the seven Census areas inside the gates, shaded by median household income (darker is richer), from the American Community Survey. Click or tap any area for its figures. The two sets of boundaries do not match, which is why both are shown.
| Census area inside the gates | Residents | 75+ | 80+ | Median household income (± margin) | 65+ households under $50,000 | Median home value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110.05 block group 2, south | 1,383 | 30% | 12% | $138,750 (±$100,000) | 6% | $666K |
| 110.06 block group 1, north | 1,728 | 29% | 20% | $114,940 (±$22,000) | 25% | $820K |
| 110.05 block group 4, west and south-west | 1,956 | 28% | 12% | $111,671 (±$5,500) | 11% | $924K |
| 110.06 block group 2, north-central | 997 | 24% | 8% | $110,721 (±$18,000) | 17% | $526K |
| 110.05 block group 1, west-central | 791 | 23% | 15% | $98,523 (±$71,000) | 25% | $645K |
| 110.06 block group 3, central-east | 1,095 | 17% | 7% | $133,045 (±$32,000) | 0% | $566K |
| 110.05 block group 3, central (Village area) | 1,027 | 9% | 7% | $193,684 (±$121,000) | 0% | $893K |
| Island inside the gates | 8,907 | 24% | 12% | $121,991 (±$14,000) | 14% | $763K |
Left map and its figures: Landings Demographic Trends, section 6 (assessor neighborhoods, 2025 digest; householder ages from Census blocks). Right map: Census TIGER block-group boundaries for tracts 110.05 and 110.06 (the Skidaway Island CDP); figures from ACS 2019–2023 tables B01001, B19013, B19037 and B25077, downloaded from the Census summary files. Compass descriptions of the Census areas are the author's; the Census does not name them. Correlation between the 75+ share and median income across the seven areas is −0.7.
The Association presented Vote 1 and Vote 2 results by neighborhood at the September 22 drop-in but has not published them. Laid against this table, they would show whether the no vote tracked age and tenure (the fixed-income thesis) or ran evenly across the island (the no-confidence thesis). The two call for different remedies.
| Assessor neighborhood | Homes | Median value | Householder 75+ | Householder under 55 | Bought in last 5 years | Median years owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Shadow / Sea Eagle | 29 | $799K | 50% | 8% | 28% | 9 |
| Sundew / Islanders | 290 | $1,291K | 48% | 11% | 28% | 8 |
| Dame Kathryn | 64 | $383K | 43% | 8% | 39% | 8 |
| Log Landing / Hasleiters | 415 | $1,010K | 37% | 22% | 31% | 9 |
| Tidewater / Little Comfort | 226 | $1,438K | 36% | 24% | 20% | 12 |
| Southerland / Hobcaw | 210 | $765K | 35% | 17% | 35% | 7 |
| Village Green / Willeford | 248 | $568K | 35% | 22% | 29% | 9 |
| Sparnel / Cabbage | 187 | $776K | 35% | 25% | 38% | 7 |
| Harbor View / Sound View | 21 | $630K | 33% | 18% | 43% | 9 |
| Delegal / Yam Gandy | 889 | $924K | 32% | 23% | 25% | 10 |
| Mainsail / Amberly | 145 | $1,060K | 30% | 11% | 32% | 8 |
| Wiley Bottom / Hemingway | 1,206 | $644K | 27% | 24% | 27% | 10 |
| Franklin Creek / Hawksbeard | 169 | $732K | 18% | 32% | 27% | 10 |
| Franklin Creek Village | 39 | $536K | 18% | 24% | 44% | 7 |
Landings Demographic Trends, section 6, Chatham County assessor neighborhoods (2025 digest); householder ages from Census blocks matched to neighborhoods. Island average: 33% householder 75+, 22% under 55, 28% bought in the last five years.
The ballots are secret, so this is a reconstruction, not a count. It takes the two published results (72% turnout and 48% yes; 73% and 62%), the Census age structure of owner households, and two assumptions stated below, and allocates the votes so that every row adds up to the published totals. The tilt between young and old is a judgment; the totals are not.
| Householder age | Lots | Turnout (assumed) | Ballots | Vote 1 yes (30% ask) | Vote 2 yes (10% ask) | Vote 2 no votes | Did not vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45 | 540 | 56% | 300 | 62% | 80% | 60 | 240 |
| 45–54 | 410 | 63% | 260 | 58% | 75% | 65 | 150 |
| 55–64 | 685 | 71% | 490 | 54% | 70% | 145 | 195 |
| 65–74 | 1,325 | 79% | 1,055 | 49% | 64% | 380 | 270 |
| 75–84 | 1,160 | 79% | 920 | 40% | 51% | 450 | 240 |
| 85 and over | 305 | 66% | 200 | 31% | 40% | 120 | 105 |
| All lots | 4,420 | 73% | 3,227 | 48% | 62% | 1,226 | 1,195 |
| If the truth is… | Vote 2 yes among 75+ | Vote 2 yes among under 65 | Share of all no votes cast by 75+ | What it would take to pass, everyone else unchanged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat: age made no difference (the no vote was about trust, not age) | 62% | 62% | 35% | About 150 minds changed anywhere; a deferral for the oldest owners buys little |
| Central: the best guess above | 49% | 74% | 47% | 75+ owners move from 49% to 62% yes, about 145 of their 1,120 ballots; a deferral is aimed at exactly that group |
| Steep: age is most of the story | 42% | 81% | 53% | 75+ owners move from 42% to 56% yes; the under-65s are already near unanimous |
By length of ownership the same estimate gives, for Vote 2: owners of five years or less about 73% yes; six to ten years 66%; eleven to twenty 57%; more than twenty years 48%. By income, only a judgment is possible: the households under $50,000 (one in seven, mostly one-person 65+ households) perhaps 40% yes, the $200,000-and-over third perhaps 70–75%. The affordability arithmetic is worth stating plainly: the second vote's first-year increase was $256, which is half of one percent of a $50,000 income and about a quarter of one percent of the estimated $97,000 median for households headed by someone 75 or older. Even the 2029 level, $781 more, is 1.6% of a $50,000 income. For most no voters this was not about being able to pay; it was about horizon (why fund 2035 roads) and trust (why fund this Board). Those are the two things the paths address.
The test. If the central estimate is right, the Association's neighborhood tallies for Vote 2 should show about 41% no in Sundew/Islanders and Oak Shadow (half the homes headed by someone 75+), 38% in Delegal and Wiley Bottom, and 35% in Franklin Creek (one in six). If the no share is the same everywhere, the flat row is right and the remedy is accountability, not a deferral. If the spread is wider than six points, the steep row is right. The Vote Decoder runs this comparison from the tallies.
Assumptions: turnout rises with age until 85 (56% under 45 to 79% at 65–84, 66% at 85+), the usual pattern in local elections, scaled to the published 72% and 73%; willingness to vote yes falls with age in a fixed ratio across both votes, with the overall level set by each vote's result. The three rows differ only in how steep that fall is. Age structure: 2020 Census owner households by age of householder (Landings Demographic Trends), applied to 4,420 lots. Counts are rounded. Income shares: ACS 2020–24. Calculation file: vote_guess.py.
Not person by person: ballots are secret. But the question is answerable in the aggregate, and most of the data already exists. The survey route needs no one's permission.
| Route | What it answers | Who holds the data | How sure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Participation file | Who turned out (not how they voted) by years owned, home value, homestead or absentee status, trust or LLC ownership | The Association: the list of lots that returned a valid ballot, joined to its owner database | Exact |
| Neighborhood inference | How older, newer and wealthier households voted, estimated from how neighborhoods with different mixes voted | The Association holds the by-neighborhood tallies; the neighborhood mix is in the companion report | Approximate, with ranges |
| Survey | Self-reported vote and reasons by age, income band and years owned; the only route to income | The summer 2026 Annual Dues Survey (2,600 responses), if it asked age or tenure; otherwise a short new survey | Self-report; 600+ responses give about ±4 points |
If the Association ever releases them: turnout by tenure, value and ownership type from the participation file (aggregates only); yes and no counts by neighborhood for both votes; the summer survey's cross-tabs by age and years owned. Without the Association: a four-question survey through the clubs and Landlovers lists, 600 responses, ±4 points.
The Landings Golf & Athletic Club and The Landings Association serve the same households behind the same gates. One of them raised its dues 71% in four years without a vote; the other could not get 10% through a referendum. The Club's IRS filings (Form 990, 2020 and 2024), its reports to its own members, and the Association's documents tell the story. This tab is written for a conversation with the Club's leadership: why the Club needs the Association's vote to pass, and what it can do about it.
The argument that Landings residents will not pay more does not survive the Club's own books. Between 2020 and 2024 the Club's dues revenue rose 71%, almost exactly the rise in road-building costs over the same years, and its members stayed: initiation fees reached $7.0 million in 2024, the Club added 141 employees, and it closed the year with an $8.4 million surplus. The Association's assessment rose 32% in the same window, and the 2026 request to continue at that pace drew 62% yes on a 73% turnout.
The Club's 2024 return labels its dues line "equity membership" where the 2020 return says "membership dues"; the 71% is the growth of that line and may not equal the change in any one member's bill. Member counts are not reported on a 990, so dues per member cannot be computed. Employees: 724 (2020) to 865 (2024), Part V line 2a.
The two organizations are run by the same kind of people, elected by the same households, for the same island. The difference is what their documents let them do.
| Decision | The Landings Association | The Landings Golf & Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Annual dues | Members set a three-year ceiling: two-thirds of votes cast, 60% of all 4,420 lots voting (Covenants 8.3–8.5) | Board of Governors sets them every year; no member vote |
| Capital assessment | Same two-thirds vote as dues (8.2.2) | Board proposes; a majority of votes cast approves, with a quorum of 600 of about 3,400 members (Bylaws 3.4, 11.2). The current capital fee, about $1,040 a year per golf or athletic membership, was approved in 2017 and runs to June 2027 |
| Big projects | Within the dues ceiling, or a special assessment at the same two-thirds vote | Any construction or renovation over $2.5 million (2008 dollars, indexed) needs a majority of votes cast, in advance (Bylaws 6.4h). The 2017 plan, $24.85 million for three projects, passed; so did the capital plans of 1997, 2002 and 2007 |
| Money from newcomers | None; a 1% transfer fee lapsed in 2001 | Initiation fees, $7.0M in 2024 |
| Borrowing | Board, for repair and restoration | Two-thirds of the Board of Governors |
| If a vote fails | The old ceiling stays in force indefinitely; no inflation escalator | Not applicable: nothing is put to a vote |
| What members vote on | Dues ceiling, special assessments, covenant changes, three directors a year | Three governors a year; assessments and projects over $2.5M (majority of votes cast); merger, sale or dissolution (two-thirds of votes cast); bylaw changes (two-thirds of votes cast or a majority of all members, whichever is less) |
| Votes per member | One per lot | Golf members three, tennis two, social, athletic and house members one |
| Choosing the board | Slate from a Board-appointed Nominating Committee; six candidates for three seats every year since 2019; no petition route | Nominating Committee chaired by the immediate past president; the slate must exceed the vacancies (up to double); a member interviewed but not slated can get on the ballot by petition of 15% of voting memberships (Bylaws 5.3–5.4) |
Club rules from its Bylaws (approved July 23, 2025; amended March 14, 2026), Sections 3.4, 5.3–5.4, 6.4, 11.1–11.2 and Article XIII, on the member portal, and from Schedule O of its 2024 Form 990. Association rules from the Covenants and Bylaws; see "Why votes fail."
The Club's $129 million of courses, clubhouses and courts (at cost; $62 million net of depreciation) sit inside infrastructure the Club does not own and cannot fund by itself. Every member, guest and employee reaches the Club on Association roads through Association gates, and every fairway drains into a lagoon and storm-drain system the two organizations share. The Club's balance sheet is strong; the ground it stands on is the Association's.
The shared plumbing. The island has 91 miles of roads, 87 miles of storm drains and 151 lagoons on 269 acres. The lagoons are the storm-water system; they are "owned by either The Landings Association or The Landings Golf & Athletic Club," and on September 22, 2026 the Association's Board approved a Master Services Agreement that formalizes the two organizations' responsibilities for stormwater infrastructure, lagoon structures and related assets. The Club already pays the Association for security and lagoon services, $125,000 in 2024 and about $174,000 in 2026, rising to $196,000 by 2031 in the long-range plan. The reserve study's capital plan for 2026–2030 is roads $12.7M and storm drains $6.6M; a $40M storm-pipe replacement sits outside the study as an allowance. On the frozen path the reserve fund falls from 27% funded to 3% by 2031, and that work is what gets deferred.
What a freeze does, from the record. After the 2018 failure the Association cut the 2020 budget 4% below 2018: security budgeted at 90% of staffing, the off-duty police patrol eliminated, center-island refurbishment cut, projects deferred. Those are the gates and entrances the Club's members and prospects drive through. This freeze has already taken $1.1 million out of the 2027 budget before the Club's season starts.
The Club's pipeline is the housing market. About 7% of the island's homes change hands each year, roughly 300 sales, and those buyers are where the Club's $7.0 million in initiation fees and its new members come from. A buyer judges the community before the Club: at the gate, on the roads, at the entrances the Landings Company photographs. The Club's premium rests on the community's condition. Median home value is $854,000; the Association's roads and drainage protect that value for the Club as much as for the owner.
Cost of waiting falls on the Club too. The Association's own analysis (April 2026): deferred road maintenance turns into reconstruction at up to three times the cost; $5.07 million of storm-drain work and $9 million of road work are due in 2027–2029 whether or not they are funded. Road-building costs are up 76% since 2018. A larger special assessment later lands on the same households that pay Club dues, at a worse moment.
In the Club's own words. Its strategic plan commits it to work with the Association "to protect real estate values, maintain shared infrastructure and effectively use land and natural resources." Reaching a stormwater and lagoon agreement with the Association was a Board KPI every year from 2021 until it was signed in September 2026. Its 2024 president told the annual meeting that "partially as a result of our Club's success, Landings community home values have increased substantially higher than surrounding comparable markets," which is the same dependency read from the other side. And GGA's 2024 focus groups reported that "in every session, the discord between the HOA and Club was mentioned as the #1 dislike and strategic concern for the Club and community"; members "want the Club and HOA to work in harmony," and listed "continued investment in security of the community" among their capital priorities.
The hard version. A gated community with 3%-funded reserves, deferred roads and a security budget in retreat is not a community that supports a $67 million club with a seven-figure initiation-fee stream. The Club can outlast one bad year of Association budgets. It cannot outlast a decade of them.
Infrastructure counts and lagoon ownership: 2026 Budget Book, community description. Master Services Agreement: Sept 22 2026 Board minutes. Service-agreement payments: Budget Book long-range financial plan, "Service Agreement – TLGAC – Security/Lagoons." Capital plan and reserve path: Reserve Study (Oct 2025) and "What a frozen cap costs." Turnover and home values: Landings Demographic Trends. Cost of waiting: landings.org, April 3 2026. Club figures: Form 990, 2024; strategic plan and KPIs from the 2023–2026 Annual Meeting reports; GGA Focus Group Report, July 2024, p. 7; 2024 president's message, 2025 Annual Meeting report.
The Club's own annual-meeting reports describe the mechanism that links the two organizations. Memberships drifted down for a decade, from 2,943 in 2007 to 2,819 in 2018, as golf members aged into lower categories or out of the Club; the Club's own 2008 projection model "projected a continuing decline in golf memberships over the foreseeable future." In 2018 about a third of the homes inside the gates carried no membership. Then two things happened at once: the 2017 capital plan opened The Deck, the new Wellness Center and the new Marshwood Clubhouse, and the pandemic sent people to golf and to Savannah. Memberships jumped 550 in two years. By 2024 the Club called 37% of its members "joined since 2019." The non-member share of homes fell to roughly a fifth. (The Club's leadership puts non-members at about 30%; the figures reconcile, and the note under the chart says how.)
Year-end counts from the Club's 2026 Annual Meeting report (Chart 1, membership by category) and the 2019–2020 Annual Reports. Homes from the 2025 county digest. Three ways to count the non-member share, all defensible: by homes, 3,444 memberships against 4,216 homes leaves 18%, or 22–23% after setting aside the memberships held by non-residents (national members, the up-to-100 non-property-owner golf memberships allowed since 2010, and members who kept their membership after moving to The Marshes); by lots, one vote each, 22–26%; by headcount, about 8,500–8,900 residents against roughly two people per member household, 25–33%. The Club's "30%" is the headcount figure. In 2018 the same arithmetic gave a third of homes and 36% of lots. For a vote counted by lots, the lot figure is the one that matters: about a quarter of lots carry no Club membership today, down from more than a third in 2018.
The surge is over; the drift has resumed. 2025 ended with 3,444 memberships, up 3. The Club added 164 members and lost 161 to resignation. Golf fell by 12: 93 new golf members and 25 upgrades in, against 43 resignations and 87 members who moved down a category. The old Social category, closed to new members since 2014, has gone from 1,212 to 541. The 2026 Annual Meeting listed "maintain golf memberships – lost 12" under "good, not great," and the 2023 report named the constraint: "lack of home inventory is a challenge."
Why that is the Association's problem too. The Club's capital money comes from two places: operating surplus and net initiation fees ($6.6 million in 2025, $7.0 million in 2024). Initiation fees come from joins, joins come from buyers, and buyers come from homes being sold. A community that ages in place does not sell homes. GGA's 2024 focus groups put the choice to the Club in exactly those words: an "age in place" strategy "will lead to the average age of the community growing older in the future and with less turnover to active lifestyle families." Older members, they reported, "are fearful that the current trajectory of the Club from a cost perspective will price many out," and want the Club to "maintain what we have." That is the Association's fixed-income bloc, seen from the other clubhouse.
How the Club handles the same problem. It prices by age: golf dues are discounted 10% at 80, 25% at 85 and 50% at 90, and 10% for members with 25 years' tenure who are 75 or older; joiners under 50 pay reduced initiation fees. It charges newcomers for capital through the initiation fee. And it tells members what to expect: the average dues increase from 2005 to 2024 was 5% a year, and future increases will run "roughly inflation + 3%." The Association's deferral, resale contribution and inflation escalator are the same three tools.
Club member portal, Document Library: 2026 Annual Meeting (membership update, Chart 1, KPIs, Financial Review), 2025 and 2024 Annual Meetings, 2023 Annual Meeting (membership summary), 2019 and 2020 Annual Reports, GGA Partners Focus Group Report (July 2024, pp. 6, 9–10), 2022 Dues & Fees schedule, A History of The Landings Club (2021 edition, 2008–2010 entries). A golf household's 2022 schedule: $12,096 dues, $1,098 house charge, $1,038 capital fee, about $14,200 a year before cart and food, against $2,594 to the Association.
The Club has three things the Association's Board lacks: credibility with the owners who voted no, a demonstrated way of raising dues without losing members, and a balance sheet. Each can be put to work.
The four moves are on the Summary tab. This tab holds what sits behind them: the deferral that answers the fixed-income bloc, the seven paths compared with their thresholds and timing, and why the order matters. None is exclusive; the first two are designed to run together. Every threshold is from the governing documents; timing assumes the Bylaws' calendar.
A third of owner households are headed by someone 75 or older, and roughly one in five by someone 80 or older (see Who votes). The second vote put a number on the hard no: at a 10% increase, 27% of all lots still voted no. Owners with a short horizon have little reason to fund a ten-year plan, and the vote arithmetic shows how decisive that is: if a bloc of one-third votes no, the rest of the community would need 99.5% yes; if the bloc is one-fifth, 83%. Read the other way: if a one-third bloc did vote no as a unit, Vote 1's 48% overall means everyone else voted about 72% yes, already above two-thirds. The bloc does not have to be won; it has to stop voting no. If it abstains, the rest need 66.7%, which on Vote 1's numbers they may already have delivered.
The design. Eligible: an owner or spouse 80 or older (75 is the alternative gate), living in the home, holding title personally or in a personal trust. Only the amount above today's $2,594 may be deferred. It accrues modest interest as a lien on the lot and is paid at sale, transfer or the end of occupancy. It is not open to everyone: a universal deferral is a zero-interest loan to 4,420 lots, and the money the vote was meant to raise never arrives. Georgia's senior property-tax deferral (O.C.G.A. § 48-5-70 et seq.), with the same age and occupancy gates and interest, is the familiar model.
| Measure | Cost to the Association | Who bears it | Covenant fit | What it does for the vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deferral for owners 80+ (or 75+) living in the home | Carrying cost only; a receivable of $0.8M (80+ gate) to $1.4M (75+ gate) by 2029, repaid as homes turn over at about 7% a year | Nobody today; the estate at sale, when the value is realized | Good: the assessment stays uniform (8.9); only payment timing changes, like the existing monthly plans; the lien already exists (8.8). Counsel to confirm. | A clear promise to the oldest owners, "no one over 80 pays more out of pocket while living here," with no subsidy for anyone to resent |
| Resale capital contribution, 0.5% of sale price, as at Kiawah, Seabrook, Kingsmill | Revenue, not cost: each $100M of annual sales yields $500K | Buyers and estates at sale | Lawful: Georgia's 2010 ban on private transfer fees exempts associations under the Property Owners' Association Act, which TLA adopted in 2013 (O.C.G.A. § 44-14-15(c)). The Landings had such a fee from 1997 until it lapsed in 2001 "due to a legal technicality," before that exemption existed. Likely needs a Declaration amendment (66⅔% of all lots) to impose; can ride on the dues ballot. Counsel to confirm. | Vote-neutral for current elderly owners; ties infrastructure cost to the point where the value is captured; restores a funding source the community once had |
| Hardship fund, private application, needs-based | Small; could be seeded by The Landings Company revenue | All lots, thinly | Good: relief, not a rate | Catches the 72-year-old in real difficulty whom an age line misses |
Deferral sizing: the Vote 2 schedule ($256 / $521 / $781 above $2,594) applied to 884 lots (one in five, the 80+ estimate) or 1,459 lots (one in three, the measured 75+ share), out of 4,420; if 60% of eligible lots defer, about $136K in 2027 rising to $414K in 2029 with an 80+ gate, $224K rising to $683K with a 75+ gate. Median home value is $854,000, so the lien is trivially secured. Age shares are from the Landings Demographic Trends report (2020 Census owner households by age of householder); the 80+ figure is an estimate, as explained in Who votes. Take-up of 60% is an assumption. Delinquency on assessments runs 0.1–0.3% a year (Annual Reports), so collection risk on the lien is negligible. The by-neighborhood vote results held by the Association could sharpen all of this.
| Path | Who acts | Threshold | Earliest effect | What it fixes | Feasibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Accountability-for-assessment package, then a third vote Board amends Bylaws first: petition route to the ballot (3.7), statutory-default removal (3.3), member-initiated ballots (2.8); by resolution: annual independent audit (7.7), reserve oversight committee with a non-Board majority, increment earmarked to the restricted reserve. Then a tiered ballot (escalator-only option beside a step-up). |
Board (6 of 9), then members | Bylaws: 2/3 of Board. Dues: 2/3 of votes cast, 60% quorum | Reforms: one Board meeting. Vote: spring 2027 | Gives "no" voters something to trade; converts the veto into a preference | High Entirely within existing authority. Timing has precedent: after the fall 2011 vote failed, owners approved a new three-year maximum in spring 2012 for 2013–2015; after 2018, in 2020 for 2021–2023. A 2027 vote would set 2028–2030; 2027 stays at $2,594 either way. Counsel should confirm, but the Association has done this twice. |
| B. Leaders' commission An independent group (past presidents, club leaders) that reviews the reserve study, CAMP priorities and governance, and publishes a package the Board adopts and residents ratify. The credible broker the Board cannot be for itself. |
Community leaders; Board accepts | None; persuasion | Weeks | Trust deficit; the 48% → 67% gap | High Needs the Board to accept the review publicly and the group to be seen as independent of it. |
| C. 2027 Board election Nominating Committee appointed by May 2027 (≥7 members, 2 directors, Board-appointed chair); interviews Sept; vote Oct. Three seats; with 2026's three, six of nine turn over by Jan 2028. Leaders apply, and press for the Committee to slate more than the minimum. |
Members, via Nominating Committee or write-in | Plurality, top 3 | Jan 1 2028 (majority) | Board composition | Medium Gatekept slate; write-ins lack the published bio. Term limits and vacancy appointments do not count toward them (3.2). |
| D. Declaration amendment: add an escalator Kiawah model: Board may raise the maximum by the greater of 5% or CPI each year; referendum reserved for step changes. Could ride on the same ballot as a dues vote. |
Members; Board certifies and records | 66⅔% of total eligible vote (≈2,947 lots) | 2027 ballot if paired | The structural cause; ends triennial all-or-nothing votes | Medium Highest bar in the documents, but owners have cleared it four times (2007, 2013, 2014, 2015; the last by 47 votes with 78% turnout and a four-month window). It takes the same playbook: one clear question, months not weeks, block captains, online voting, and trusted non-Board voices (path B). The 2013 Act vote also opened at the Annual Meeting with a running tally, which kept pressure on. |
| E. Special meeting by petition 25% of total vote compels a meeting within 60 days (2.2). Agenda can include director removal (needs 2,210 yes) or an advisory resolution. The President sets date, place and agenda. |
Members | 1,105 signatures to call; 2,210 to remove | 60 days from petition | Forces the Board to stand and be heard; signal | Medium The meeting is achievable; removal almost certainly is not. Useful as leverage behind A and B, costly to goodwill if used first. |
| F. Board-only measures (no vote) Fee increases, borrowing for repair/restoration, service cuts, re-sequencing CAMP. |
Board | Majority of Board | 2027 budget | Cash, not trust | Default if nothing else happens Deepens the perception that the vote is being bypassed; raises the regressive, less transparent share of funding. |
| G. Court removal of a director O.C.G.A. § 14-3-810; narrow grounds (fraud, gross abuse of authority). |
Members with standing | Judicial | Months | Individual conduct only | Last resort Not indicated by anything in the record. |
The same explanations that appear when you click a dotted-underlined word, collected in one place.
Every document cited in this brief is included here as a large-type, searchable text copy ("read"), with a link to the original PDF on landings.org ("original"). The text copies were extracted from the Association's own files on November 4, 2026; wording is unchanged, layout simplified.
Prepared from The Landings Association's published Covenants, Bylaws, 2026 Budget Book, Reserve Study, voting packets and Board packets as of November 4, 2026, its Documents library (dues and covenant voting packets 2002–2026, Annual Reports, Annual Meeting presentations, budget workshops, committee charters, election packets) and its 2025–26 news posts, plus a 37-community benchmark (TLA_Dues_Benchmark_2026.xlsx) and the companion Landings Demographic Trends report (county digests, Census, ACS, IRS). Analysis and path assessments are the author's. Numbers are exact where the source gives them; derived figures (per-lot and per-mile ratios, real-value erosion at 3% inflation) are computed from the cited inputs.